These numbers indicate a substantial untapped potential of increasing cycling trip shares worldwide to reduce transport related GHG emissions, which deserves a close look facing the global climate urgency. In fact, most western countries still depend largely on cars for daily travel with a high motorization rate after the 1970s, with few notable exceptions of countries with pro-bicycle policies 18 such as the Netherlands and Denmark. Nonetheless, as of this writing, bicycles only play a marginal role in transport in most world countries 16, 17. They have been used for multiples purposes, ranging from military operations in the first and second world wars 15 to being used for sport, recreation, and traveling purposes. Travel behavior changes 13 and modal shifts from passenger cars to bicycles for short-distance trips that are too far for walking and too short to transit 14 are also necessary for a global sustainable transport transition.ĭating back to the early 19th century, bicycles have a longer history than motorized cars 15. Technological mitigation strategies for passenger cars alone, such as electrification, lightweight, and fuel efficiency improvement 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, are insufficient to achieve corresponding climate target 12. The global demand for passenger road transport is anticipated to increase by approximately three times by 2050 2, further exacerbating the climate challenges. The transport sector accounts for one-quarter of global fuel-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and half of these emissions are from passenger cars 1. A worldwide pro-bicycle policy and infrastructure development enabled modal shift like the Netherlands and Denmark can lead to significant untapped climate and health benefits. High bicycle ownership does not necessarily lead to high bicycle use, which is instead still marginal in daily trips worldwide (<5% for most countries). Our comparison between the historical development of per-capita bicycle ownership and car ownership reveals five varying types in an S-curve among different countries. Here, based on a dynamic model and various data sources, we have compiled, to our knowledge, the first global dataset for bicycle ownership and use by country from 1962 to 2015. Yet, the historical patterns of global bicycle production, trade, stock, and use remain poorly characterized, preventing thorough investigation of its role in sustainable road transport transition. Bicycles are widely recognized as an effective solution for reducing short-distance trip-related climate impacts and addressing sedentary lifestyle-caused chronic diseases.
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